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China and World Economic Outlook 2019 - Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economists Forum

Time: 2019-04-04 14:50 Print

On 21st March 2019,Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economists Forum is successfully held. The Forum is jointly hosted by Center for International Finance and Economic Research (CIFER) at Tsinghua University National Institute of Financial Research and JD DIGITS. Themed on "China and the World Economic Outlook 2019", leading chief economists from top financial institutions, home and abroad, are invited to join the heated discussions on China and world’s economic and policy trend. The Forum is one of the economic conference series held by CIFER at Tsinghua NIFR, which sets sights on high-end, authoritative and cutting-edge research, integrating policy interpretation, practical advice and academic researches.

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(Photo:Discussants)

Economist's Insigts

(By speaking orders)

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(Photo: SHEN Jianguang)

Shen Jianguang, Vice President & Chief Economist of JD DIGITS:This year's economy may remain sluggish at first and boom up later. Policy support to the economy might largely exceed market expectations.

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(Photo: Zhou Hao)

Zhou Hao, Associate Dean and Unigroup Chair Professor of PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University: It is not the total of the debt but the structure that matters, e.g. debt of local government and some state-owned enterprises may lead to financial systemic risk. Under moderate growth and inflation,the self-improvement in leverage structure is taking place.

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(Photo: Huang Yiping)

Huang Yiping, Associate Dean of National School of Development, Peking University: The one-size-fits-all deleveraging method may not be as good as structural deleveraging, and it is more appropriate to slow down leverage rate growth than deleveraging.

伍戈.jpg

(Photo: Wu Ge)

Wu Ge, Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities,President Assistant: This year, domestic economic development aims to achieve "six stabilities", while external demand is declining. In the objective point of view, the domestic leverage rate will rise passively in the short term.

 乔虹.jpg

(Photo: Qiao Hong)

Qiao Hong, Chief Economist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Greater China: economy growth rate for this year may be high first and slow down later. Under the gradual increase in terms of macro fundamentals, more attention should be paid on external risks.

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(Photo: Lu Ting)

Lu Ting, Chief Economist of Luting Nomura Securities, China: China's economy is under downward pressure this year, and the space for traditional policy shrinks. This year’s economic stability and improvement depends on the promulgation and non-traditional policies.

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(Photo: Ju Jiandong)

Ju Jiandong, Unigroup Chair Professor of PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University: A tri-polar global order of Asia, Europe and North America, represented by China, Germany and the United States emerged in the recent world economy. A new tri-polar global order is needed. The asymmetry between technology market and product market makes it significant to establish competitive rather than monopolistic technology market.

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(Photo: Yao Yudong)

Yao Yudong, Vice General Manager and Chief Economist of Da Cheng Fund Managenent Co.,Ltd: Global liquidity has gone from insufficient to relatively loose, bringing new opportunities to China's economy, which will remain prosperity under the ‘new normal’.

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(Photo: Zhu Haibin)

Zhu Haibin, Chief Economist of JP Morgan Chase Bank (China) Co Ltd, Director of Economic Research, Greater China: From 2018 to 2019, there are two aspects exerting profound and long-term influence on the global economy - the impact of changes in U.S. trade policy on the global trading system and the re-entry of global monetary policy into a relatively expansionary situation.

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(Photo: Chang Jian)

Chang Jian, Chief Economist of Barclays Bank, China: China's economy began to rebound after hitting the bottom in the first quarter of this year. Under the pressure of global economic slowdown, PPI deflation and the fall of price in real estate dragging down internal and external demand, there is still room for further decline in interest rates in China.

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 (Photo: Chen Xingdong)

Chen Xingdong, Chief Economist of BNP Paribas China Co., Ltd: Macroeconomic policies are experiencing open expansion this year. It is more likely that economic growth continues to maintain within a reasonable range, but will slow down compared with 2018. On this basis and from the perspective of quarterly changes, the economy may gradually improve in the third quarter.

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 (Photo: Wei Li)

Wei Li, Chief Economist of Heng Chang Group: The most dangerous “gray rhino” in the world is populism. It is very crucial to us whether such a possible “grey rhino” would affect our long-term internationalization of the RMB, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the transformation between the old and new kinetic energy, as well as the “six stability”.

Tsinghua University National Institute of Financial Research - International Finance and Economic Research Center (CIFER) was established in November 2017 as an academic, policy and enterprise research institution that focuses on international finance, international trade and global governance. It is based in the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University. With the mission of “Gathering talents, rooting in China, and serving the world”, the center is committed to becoming a platform for research and communication for outstanding international economists to promote the development and application of international economic theories.