On October 21-23, the Annual Conference of Financial Street Forum 2020 made the grand opening. As the only academic support unit, Tsinghua PBCSF joined the forum. In the morning of October 22, Tsinghua PBCSF successfully organized the session of “Economic Recovery and Reconstruction in the Post-pandemic Era” in Parallel Forum II.

Zhu Guangyao, former Vice Minister of Finance; Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology; Yao Jingyuan, former Chief Economist and spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, special researcher of the Counsels’ Office of the State Council; Axel A. Weber, Chairman of the Board of Directors at UBS; Richard Apostolik, President & Chief Executive Officer at The Global Association of Risk Professionals; Huang Haizhou, Managing Director and member of the Management Committee of China International Capital Corporation Limited, joined the forum and made speeches. Hao Zhou, Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance and Associate Dean of PBC School of Finance, presided over the Session.

Mr. Hao Zhou

In his speech, Zhu Guangyao stated that there appears a K shape in post pandemic economic recovery. There are four identifiable features: 1. There are differentiations in country and regional recoveries. IMF predicts that, global economy will decrease by 4.4%, while the rate of U.S. -4.3%, Euro Zone -8.2%, and China, the only country that achieves positive growth, 1.9%; 2. There is a clear separation in real economy and financial market, especially stock market; 3. K shape recovery appears in income distribution. The pandemic has brought heavy shock to poor countries and mid and low income group in China; 4. There will be an obvious K shape in global governance. Zhu thinks that major countries should insist on peaceful coexistence, open-up and cooperation, multilateralism, dialogue and negotiation, to resolve the challenges in global governance system, and ensure a healthy development in global economy.

Mr. Zhu Guangyao

Xin Guobin said in the speech that since the pandemic this year, China’s financial administrations has brought up multiple policies to help with the recovery and growth in manufacture industry. The first 3 seasons’ year on year value added growth has increased 1.7%, showing the strong resilience and vitality of China's manufacture industry. Xin pointed out that there are irrelevances in China’s financial supply and demand, shown in imbalanced configuration structure, term structure, market structure, subject structure and stage structure, where the deep reason is imbalanced and inadequate development in financial supply side. Xin also stated that, looking at post-pandemic era, the development environment of manufacture industry will be more complex and serious. We should ensure industry chain as well as supply chain, and accelerate the promotion of the fundamental capabilities and industry chain modernism of China’s manufacture industry.

Mr. Xin Guobin

In his speech, Yao Jingyuan emphasized on the analysis of 4 indexes of China’s economy. In the aspect of economic growth rate, he predicted that the growth of the fourth season will reach above 5% in China, with annual average rate around 2%. In regard to unemployment, due to the shock of the pandemic, the unemployment in first 2 months reached to 6.2%, and falls back to 5.4% in September, where China achieved a positive progress. In regard to CPI, the average increase is 3.3%, where the preset goal in the beginning of the year is achieved. In regard to the international income and expenditure balance, China achieves trade surplus in the first 3 seasons of 230 billion RMB, and foreign exchange reserve exceeds 3.1 trillion USD.

Yao expressed that, though China is facing unprecedented difficulties, hard-earned achievements are made. In the process of recovery, there are still many indicators below normal level. And there are more problems needs attention including inadequate sufficient demands, structural problems, and etc.

Mr. Yao Jingyuan

Axel A. Weber joined the Session through online connection. He thinks that there is high uncertainty in future economy and policy. Policy decision makers should be more prepared basing on current situation. China should pay more attention to economic stability rather than GDP growth. Weber emphasizes on the importance of multilateral co-operation, especially when the world is facing multiple challenges. There needs to be explorations of innovative co-operation mode, and to strengthen the dialogue between countries, institutions, and different industries. Weber also shows his praises of China's action of loosening the financial restrictions, and economic open-up. He thinks the high speed economic development in China will bring numerous innovative opportunities. 

Axel A. Weber Joined the Session Online

Richard Apostolik also joined the forum through online connection. He shared his insights from 3 aspects: global outlook, risk management and how to ensure enterprises’ stress resistance. Apostolik thinks the global liquidity and financial support should be further strengthened, and tradition central banks and governments will need to make relevant changes and co-ordinations. Apostolik emphasizes that, while ensuring adequate liquidity, efforts should be taken to strengthen banks’ risk management, thus further ensures global financial stability. In addition, he thinks the concept of “ensuring stability on six fronts” brought up by China, ensures basic daily supply while ensuring supply chain and efficiency of government management. In the aspect of enterprise development, Apostolik thinks that enterprises should quantifies the enterprises’ stress resistance, adjust the speed and capability of the reflection to changes, and promote the efficiency and resistance of company operation.

Richard Apostolik Joined Session

Huang Haizhou shared his insights on the topic of “dual circulation economic development, dual capital reform and open-up”. He said that capital market can play a very important role. He also brought up the concept of “dual capital”, which means taking the actions of open-up under capital account together with the reforming in domestic capital market. He thinks it will strengthen the connection between China and U.S.in the area of finance, buffer the decouple process in the technology and other areas, attracts more international investors, and better promotes the transformation of China’s technology innovation and economy. China’s economy is still on the road of transform and update. Through dual capital reform and open up, we could build a big and strong market.

Mr. Huang Haizhou

Theming on “Financial Cooperation and Reform under Global Changes”, the forum is sponsored by the People’s Government of Beijing Municipality, The People’s Bank of China, Xinhua News Agency, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, and State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Venue of the Forum Session