At the 2019 Global Wealth Management Forum themed “New Wealth Management Opportunities Amid Global Challenges” held on October 26, Hao Zhou, Associate Dean and Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua PBCSF, had a dialogue with Austan Goolsbee, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, over economic development of the two countries and the global wealth management industry.
Goolsbee expressed that, the world economy seems to be entering a chilly winter and many issues that US encountered have made him pessimistic about the future. Too fast a pace of interest rate hikes by the US Fed, substantial asset price declines in the US, rising commodity prices and inappropriate intervention of the US government in economic development will throw the US economy into recession.
As for the wealth management industry, Goolsbee suggested that attention should be paid to the inverted yield curve of US government bonds, industry data sensitive to economic cycles and central bank policies worldwide, in addition to GDP growth data.
Goolsbee also believed that, as the Chinese economy continues to improve, economic growth trends will be sustained. China will be more globalized, and many fine companies from all over the world will come here to invest. Chinese consumers will become richer, but they will not buy more manufactured goods; instead, they will buy more services, which will further facilitate the transformation of the Chinese economy.
Hao Zhou remarked that, in recent years, domestic demand has remained robust, with economic development’s dependency on international trade declining. US-China trade frictions may drag down China’s GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points, other than the 2.5 percentage points forecast by the IMF. Goolsbee agreed with him.
Under the guidance of the Beijing Local Financial Supervision and Administration and the Tongzhou District People’s Government of Beijing Municipality, the forum was hosted by the Caijing Magazine, Zhongguancun China Economic Research and Development Foundation, Financial Street No. 88 Forum, China Ageing Finance Forum and Beijing Financial Holdings Group. The forum has also got academic support from Tsinghua PBCSF and strategic support from Fuwah International Group.