According to the recent released macroeconomic data by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China has achieved a positive year-on-year growth of 0.7% for the first three quarters of 2020. There are a few new records mentioned in the data, which are the evidence for the “V-shape” recovery of the economy and demonstrate the strong resilience and elasticity of China’s market.
A few questions are raised looking into the data. Namely, which factor is supporting the warming up of China’s economy? What are the risks that we should take a close look at in the coming quarter? And what are the development “short board” that we should overcome? On October 19th, Prof. Xuan Tian, the Associate Dean and JD Capital Chair Professor of Finance of PBC school of Finance, Tsinghua University, was interviewed by CCTV-1 and shared his views concerning these topics.
Tian expressed his satisfaction to the performance of our economy during such a hard period and he was glad to see the recovery of the activities of the market. He feels that the government policies, including those that support the market entities and reduce taxes and fees, have precisely unlocked the market vitality. The PMI of most pandemic-affected small enterprises successfully increases to 50.1%, which is above the critical line.
Tian pointed out that the rebound in manufacturing and the firm recovery in consumption are also outstanding. With the rapid growth in the hi-tech manufacturing industry and the on-line retail industry, there is a strong booming in the driving force of economic transform and development. With the pandemic generally under control, and people's daily life gradually returning to normal, there might be an outburst of people’s willingness to consume. With the gradual opening of the brick-and-mortar stores and the popularity of on-line shopping, the overall consumption will continue to grow and recover.
Furthermore, the benefit of dual circulation gradually reveals. The productivity released by the domestic circulation effectively fills up the gap of international needs. Under the long-lasting influence of the pandemic and the increasingly intense relationship between China and the U.S., the positive growth of import in September goes beyond expectation.
For the fourth quarter of 2020, Tian suggested that we should be optimistic to the overall economy while staying determined among the global and domestic uncertainties. We should be patient, and focus on our own businesses. By centering on a smooth domestic and international dual circulation, we have the ability to achieve a positive annual economic growth and pursuit a constant “V-shape” recovery.
Tian suggested that, on one hand, we need to stabilize the fundamentals, and make the dual circulation operates smoothly; while on the other hand, we also need to focus on the macro level, and continue to stimulate the endogenous power of sustainable economic development.